The logarithm of the likelihood ratio is given by z♺ - A 2/2. The expected value of z is 0 under the null hypothesis, and A under the alternate hypothesis. The result of the trial is summarised by the test statistic z (ie, the estimated treatment effect divided by its standard error). ![]() The likelihood ratio compares two hypotheses in light of data: that a new treatment is effective, at a specified level (alternate hypothesis: for instance, the hazard ratio equals 0.7), and that it is not (null hypothesis: the hazard ratio equals 1). A method is shown for deriving likelihood ratios from published trial reports. Its interpretation is simple - for example, a value of 10 means that the first hypothesis is 10 times as strongly supported by the data as the second. ![]() The likelihood ratio is a method for assessing evidence regarding two simple statistical hypotheses.
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